I doubt that it will be that serious. First of all, most people will not be impacted. The majority of loans made in the past few years were still 30 year fixed rate loans and most buyers made down payments. The small portion of buyers who were speculating and cannot carry the payments long-term will become foreclosures. Yes, those foreclosures will drive prices down in the areas where they happen, but not everyone has to sell. Only those sellers who are in a position where they have to sell will be impacted. Long term holders of real estate will continue to make payments and will not be impacted. If a property's value drops down below loan value there is no requirement that people will have to "come up with the difference" as you put it, unless they are forced to sell. The most likely bunch of investors that will be negatively impacted are the ones that actually follow the advice of "real estate gurus" that preach the no money down, flipping, and similar deals. I don't think they are a significant part of the market and will be glad to be rid of them for awhile.
The lenders are not stupid. They do expect some impact in places like California and Florida and are taking steps to spread their risk. Many markets are counter-cyclical and have not experienced any part of the bubble you are afraid of, so lenders are spreading their portfolio risk by lending in various markets. Texas is a good example, where appreciation has been low in single digits.
Real estate markets are micromarkets, and do not behave like stocks. As any agent will tell you, location, location, and location are the keys to real estate. Good locations will mostly continue to be good locations in most cities. People will still like living in California and Florida (although the hurricane risk there makes me question their sanity). Much of the money driving the boom in these areas is foreign money. Few people realize that since the dollar has dropped almost 30% that non-US investors have been buying what they see as bargain property. After all, it is 30% cheaper than it was before for them. Many of these investors pay all cash. They will not be impacted by falling values. Unless the dollar recovers value, that money will continue to flow in.
I've been through two real estate reversals, once in the early 1980's when mortgage rates actually went to 19%, and another in the early 1990's when real estate values dropped about ten to twenty percent in some markets. There was a crash in commercial real estate in the late eighties created by the Reagan administration changing the lending regulations at the same time they increased the reserve requirements for banks that led to the savings and loan bailout. That was coupled with a change in real estate depreciation laws, but this mostly impacted commercial properties (and taxpayers who paid for the bailout). Most people's lives are barely impacted by falling real estate values. Like I said the only ones that will notice are the ones that are forced to sell for some reason other than falling real estate values.
By the way, I own KBH and have made more money off of it in the form of dividends and stock payouts than I initially invested back in the 1970's. The stock has split so many times I have lost count. The stock can go to $1 and I will still show a profit. |